00:00
[Music]
00:00
imagine a country that takes its climate
00:03
protection goals seriously
00:05
that became rich in oil yet still aims
00:08
to ban cars that run on fossil fuels in
00:11
just six years that country exists
00:16
Norwegians aren't crazy they have a plan
00:20
Germans have been building cars for over
00:22
a hundred years do we have a plan to the
00:26
the demise of the combustion engine is near
00:28
the world is shifting to an electrified
00:31
future it's not an option anymore to say
00:34
it won't happen we've crossed the line
00:36
it's happening that's cold
00:38
the question isn't what type of engine
00:41
is better or more environmentally
00:43
friendly the car industry is in the
00:46
throes of unprecedented change and
00:48
Germany risks being left behind the
00:51
world's biggest car market China is
00:53
powering an electric vehicle revolution
00:55
and building the cars it needs itself oh
00:59
boy if you come crying to preserve jobs
01:01
come hell or high water in sectors where
01:03
I can see that world markets have
01:05
already moved those sectors in a new
01:07
the direction it's the worst mistake you can
01:09
make the world has made up its mind as
01:13
Germany the birthplace of the automobile
01:15
a proud car culture we know how to build
01:21
a diesel engine ours are probably the
01:23
best in the world we can also build
01:25
combustion engines the question is does
01:27
the world still need them it's Germany
01:31
prepared for the future
01:35
[Music]
01:56
we're in Bergen this was once Norway's
01:59
most polluted intersection Don mocks
02:02
plus the junction of two major transport
02:06
routes now the city's biggest electric
02:08
the vehicle charging station is located here
02:11
do you feel like a pioneer do you feel
02:14
quite normal yes it's much
02:16
cheaper I don't have to pay that all
02:19
wrong don't have to go to that gas
02:20
station and its minute that's right
02:23
everyone says well it doesn't work
02:24
because it's so complicated although
02:27
it's not will you ever go back to
02:31
combustion engine car definitely not no
02:36
another country in the world has more
02:37
electric cars per capita than Norway 65%
02:40
of all new cars sold here are electric
02:42
or hybrid models the figures just 7% in
02:45
Germany it's not a coincidence it's
02:48
political will Norway wants to be a
02:51
pioneer it sees climate protection as an
02:54
opportunity for its economy, not a threat
02:56
it's already a world leader an
02:58
emission-free technology for ships
03:01
drivers of electric cars enjoy tax
03:03
exemptions free or cheaper public
03:06
parking and the use of bus lanes
03:07
charging stations and parking garages
03:09
are standard I meet up with Christine
03:13
about her association represents the
03:16
interests of Norwegian electric car
03:17
owners her voice counts not just in
03:20
Norway German politicians and industry
03:23
executives have also sought her advice
03:27
this clear direction is for the
03:30
consumers also a clear sign that this is
03:33
this is where we're going and this is
03:35
this is the future I'm really sick of
03:37
hearing car manufacturers blaming
03:40
consumers saying consumers are not ready
03:43
if someone asked me if I wanted a
03:45
smartphone before it was launched I
03:47
would have understood even but if if
03:49
someone now wanted to take my smartphone
03:51
away from me, I would have you know it's
03:53
the same with electric mobility the
03:55
Norwegian case shows that if prices level
03:58
consumers are more than ready to go
04:00
electric so don't blame us don't blame
04:02
the consumers do the job in Oslo 77%
04:08
of all new cars sold are electric within
04:11
a year carbon dioxide emissions have
04:13
dipped by 9%
04:15
Norway didn't invent the battery-powered
04:18
car in fact alternatives to combustion
04:21
engines have been around for a long time
04:23
in 1975 Mercedes rolled out its first
04:27
emission-free van
04:28
[Music]
04:38
1976 marked the birth of Volkswagens
04:41
electric golf
04:43
BMW launched its II won in the early
04:46
In the 1990s via VDS we showcased our first
04:50
electric cars at the 1972 Olympic Games
04:53
in Munich, they accompany the marathon
04:55
run we now have 20 years of experience
04:57
under our belt and I think we've
04:59
mastered the technology
05:01
give us five maybe ten years then we'll
05:04
be ready
05:09
27 years later and we're still not ready
05:12
Germany is nowhere near to reaching its
05:15
2020 climate goals which foresee a
05:17
million electric vehicles on its roads
05:19
next year instead we're still debating
05:23
our threshold set in stone is the diesel
05:28
engine better than its tattered
05:29
reputation part electric cars polluters
05:33
in other ways
05:36
the Geneva Motor Show stomping ground of
05:40
the tradition-conscious car industry
05:42
here nothing seems out of order
05:45
after all, Daimler is unveiling a van
05:49
it's electric unfortunately it's not for
05:53
sale yet and then it presents the GLA 53
05:59
435 horsepower 212 grams of co2 per
06:04
kilometer this all-rounder makes me feel
06:07
like I can do anything anywhere anytime
06:10
thank you very much thank you guys
06:22
[Applause]
06:25
to date most German electric vehicles
06:27
have been hybrids big heavy and above
06:30
all expensive prices start at 70,000
06:34
euros the premium segment has a quote
06:37
higher price elasticity which is another
06:40
way of saying it reaps bigger profits
06:42
for managers and shareholders small
06:45
affordable mass-market ready German
06:48
manufacturers have been slow on the
06:50
uptake carnation Germany is evidently in
06:53
no hurry to join the revolution it's
06:56
counting on tried and tested technology
06:58
on slow change, Stefan Watson is a
07:03
seasoned expert on the auto industry
07:06
he's growing increasingly concerned I
07:11
think German carmakers have a 50/50
07:13
chance of surviving this war of the
07:15
worlds' it could be that Germany is
07:17
simply a victim of its own success that
07:22
on the whole with its auto manufacturers
07:24
industry and political backing it was
07:27
too comfortable to recognize the changes
07:29
and draw the correct conclusions Gemini
07:35
has yet to produce a master plan for
07:37
coping with a changing automobile
07:39
industry maybe because change is the
07:42
opposite of what the government and car
07:44
makers have bonded over some 800,000
07:48
jobs are directly dependent on the auto
07:49
industry many more are indirectly
07:52
dependent annual turnover over 400
07:58
billion euros
07:59
one reason why German politicians have
08:02
long worked to avert any threat to the
08:04
car industry protecting the sector from
08:07
sudden disruptive change in 2018 the
08:18
German Chancellor addressed an annual
08:20
gathering of German industry we cannot
08:25
alter the climate goals that we've set
08:27
for ourselves and to an extent adopted
08:30
as part of European climate targets as a
08:32
whole particularly for 2030 I live fit
08:39
anything beyond those efforts threatens
08:41
to drive the auto industry out of Europe
08:44
car makers would produce the cars they
08:46
sell here somewhere else I stress that I
08:49
do not want that to happen
08:51
it's changed necessarily a threat when
08:55
it comes to the auto industry the German
08:57
the government seems to think so will use
09:01
all means to fight restrictions as in
09:03
driving bans our goal is to avoid
09:06
driving bands and shape the future of
09:08
mobility in a way that includes clean
09:09
combustion engines clean combustion
09:14
engines a flexible concept in Germany
09:17
driving bands a red flag threatening to
09:21
curtail open roads for free citizens the
09:25
diesel emissions scandal showed anger in
09:27
Germany the auto industry stalled then
09:30
cheated then covered it up and then
09:33
cities imposed driving restrictions
09:36
waiting for compensation Germany's
09:39
yellow vests feel betrayed by
09:41
corporations and punished by politicians
09:45
automotive freedom subsidized diesel
09:48
fuel commuter allowances incentives to
09:51
sweeten life in the suburbs but now they
09:54
say they're footing the bill for
09:57
mistakes made by industry and government
10:02
[Music]
10:03
they're always saying no it's not like
10:06
that it's not true of course they
10:09
cheated and VW has to answer for that
10:11
but we can't all be punished as a result
10:15
[Applause]
10:15
[Music]
10:18
this will have a huge impact on Germany
10:21
for years to come affecting the auto
10:23
industry and its suppliers all the way
10:25
down to the last mechanic, Germany failed
10:31
to get in the driver's seat and forge a
10:33
path for others to follow it may prove
10:37
an existential mistake because while we
10:40
Germans are still arguing about past
10:42
emissions the rest of the world is
10:44
already on the road to a new era China
10:49
the world's biggest and most important
10:51
market it's still growing German car
10:55
makers helped power mass motorization
10:58
here and made a lot of money they
11:00
command a market share of 23.2%
11:03
in the combustion engine sector but just
11:06
0.4% and the electric car sector and
11:09
that's a problem no one can beat Germany
11:13
when it comes to technology for diesel
11:15
and gasoline engines it has 130 years of
11:19
experience but when it comes to electric
11:22
vehicles
11:22
everyone is taking off from the same
11:24
starting line and China is racing ahead
11:28
by 2025 Beijing wants about 25 percent
11:32
of cars sold annually to be plug-in
11:34
hybrids or battery-powered not least
11:37
because the country is suffocating and
11:38
smog
11:40
but 25% in China equals the combined
11:44
total of new cars sold in Germany France
11:46
and Britain it's a giant piece of the
11:49
pie a pie that if Germany isn't careful
11:52
will be divided up among others
11:57
China aims to stop selling combustion
12:00
engine cars in 11 years I've arranged to
12:07
meet a German top manager who spent
12:09
years at BMW he helped develop the i8 a
12:13
small electric revolution at the time
12:17
but then he turned his back on Germany
12:20
and came to China he took half his
12:24
development team with him
12:25
[Music]
12:30
what opportunities did Costin
12:33
brightfield identify here that he didn't
12:36
see in Germany things happen in China at
12:41
lightning speed it's a gigantic market
12:43
with 30 million new cars sold each year
12:46
there's a ton of capital and investors
12:48
in China and the issue has strong
12:50
government backing in China if the
12:52
the government says more electric cars are
12:54
the goal then the decision is made to
12:56
install 50,000 charging stations and by
12:59
the next month they're in place so
13:01
normally the follow-up question in any
13:03
the interview does that mean I'm against
13:05
democracy and naturally I say no I'm not
13:08
but if I look at the European Democratic
13:11
structures then I see how we spend about
13:13
a decade discussing new ideas and after
13:15
a decade all that's left is 10 percent
13:17
of the original idea so we need to
13:20
realize that if we maintain that pace of
13:22
decision making and the realization we just
13:24
won't be able to keep abreast of global
13:26
developments between discard and the
13:29
Anvik lumen in the world
13:35
Las Vegas the annual CES tradeshow
13:39
spotlights high-tech innovations from
13:41
around the world before his current
13:44
venture costs and bright Feld helped
13:46
build this car for a Chinese startup
13:48
Buy German manufacturing expertise
13:53
lots of cash and unlimited government
13:56
backing the ingredients China is using
13:59
to power ahead on the market the Mbyte
14:02
is a 40 thousand euro electric SUV with
14:04
a 1 meter 20 screen a tablet on wheels
14:07
for video conferences or online shopping
14:11
to pass the time in traffic jams it's
14:13
set for production in late 2019 Mercedes is
14:17
here too with a glass prototype the
14:21
mid-range combustion engine cars on the
14:23
another hand can be purchased BMW also has
14:28
a vision the eye next electric
14:32
self-driving with a shag carpet it's not
14:35
for sale by meeting another high-profile
14:39
German who jumped ship Karl-Thomas
14:42
Neumann was on the Volkswagen board CEO
14:46
of continental and then Opel now he
14:49
lives in the US where he's launched his
14:51
startup
14:58
is this really the dawn of a new era the
15:01
dawn of a new era and down here we have
15:05
the biggest SUV that BMW has ever built
15:08
isn't that emblematic of the current
15:10
the situation in the German car industry
15:12
sure you could say that it's kind of
15:16
symbolic of what's going on
15:20
it certainly looks more like a dinosaur
15:23
than futuristic
15:25
but the dinosaurs aren't nearing
15:28
extinction they're still successful
15:30
moneymakers in the twilights of the
15:32
the combustion engine can success hinder
15:39
progress is the German auto industry
15:44
being held back by its own success
15:46
I do think that's a big part of it yes
15:48
it's hard to give up that success and
15:50
say to some extent I have to destroy
15:52
that success to create a new one you
15:55
weren't exactly in a bad position at
15:57
Opel to make a start
15:58
why didn't you we did try I would have
16:03
liked to fully Electrify Opel because
16:05
when the emission scandal hit I realized
16:07
it's not enough to just adhere to the
16:09
laws you need to develop a new mindset
16:12
and the mindset I would have liked for
16:14
Opel would have enabled a full switch to
16:17
electric car production by 2030 then we
16:21
could have gone to lawmakers and said
16:22
hey we need the framework so that this
16:24
can work we both need to make sure this
16:26
happens jobs will be lost but new ones
16:29
will be created and electric vehicles
16:31
will give rise to new business
16:33
opportunities but where's this being
16:35
discussed in Germany or even in Europe
16:38
maybe we Germans simply can't part with
16:40
our gas guzzlers yet because they're our
16:43
invention and so slick perfect machines
16:46
with high precision parts that just keep
16:49
getting better stronger heavier 2.5 tons
16:54
German engineering genius the most
16:57
complex driving machine in history an
17:01
the electric car doesn't need all that
17:03
instead of an estimated 2,000 moving
17:06
parts it has just 200 simply beneath our
17:10
dignity
17:14
carnation Germany appears comatose it's
17:17
as if all the changes have nothing to do
17:19
with us alternative engines driverless
17:22
cars new visions of transport why can't
17:27
we catch up we're a country of engineers
17:34
perfection took us to the top and
17:37
continuity kept us there an abrupt change
17:41
is exactly the opposite I have an
17:44
appointment with ubukata he chairs a
17:47
government advisory panel on research
17:50
and innovation and he has an explanation
17:52
for what's gone wrong in Germany you
17:58
have to work hard to attain the status
18:00
of innovation leader, the danger is that
18:02
once you've made it to the top and
18:03
there's a reversal then you get the
18:05
so-called lock-in effect the lock-in
18:08
effect means I'm trapped inside and can
18:10
barely see a way out apart from
18:11
extremely high expenditure so in the
18:14
case of the auto industry we are now at
18:16
the top of our game and fossil fuel
18:17
powered cars no one comes close but
18:20
stepping out of that comfort zone
18:22
towards other types of engines is
18:24
associated with very high costs
18:25
conversion costs transaction costs and
18:28
that's called lock-in that's what we
18:31
have here in the German auto industry
18:32
and that's the challenge
18:37
how should policymakers be steering
18:40
developments in processes of deep
18:45
structural change the government has a
18:47
responsibility to secure people's
18:49
incomes but not their jobs no one should
18:53
get left behind amid such structural
18:55
change there needs to be a safety net
18:58
somewhere but trying to preserve jobs
19:04
and sectors where I can see that world
19:05
markets have already moved those sectors
19:07
in a new direction is the worst mistake
19:09
you can make it can't have escaped
19:12
anyone's noticed that things are moving
19:14
in a new direction in this sector
19:16
dieselgate the emissions crisis
19:19
theoretically, a good time to be mapping
19:22
out a transformation plan for
19:23
policymakers to
19:25
more of the same can't be the answer in
19:27
a world undergoing radical change we're
19:30
letting others call the shots why is
19:32
Germany like a rudderless ship the
19:34
German Transport Minister didn't have
19:36
time to answer our questions instead we
19:38
speak to junior minister Stefan Belga
19:42
our country is closely connected to the
19:45
the automotive industry so we need to
19:47
consider the impact that major
19:48
transformations will have on jobs for us
19:52
this transformation is a process of
19:53
evolution, not revolution and we're
19:56
managing quite well but isn't it
19:59
precisely because of that responsibility
20:01
that we should be driving innovation
20:05
we've backed ambitious climate targets
20:07
we've always pursued ambitious goals at
20:09
the European level which our automotive
20:11
the industry then has to implement but there
20:17
have been times when it seemed there was
20:19
little political support for the most
20:21
ambitious climate goals there are
20:30
without a doubt proposals within the
20:32
Europe wide debate that we don't
20:33
consider productive in my view the goal
20:37
should not be that we decide today in
20:38
2019
20:40
what Transport will look like in Germany
20:41
in the years 2025 2030 or 2050 a lot can
20:45
develop in the coming years
20:49
what if developments go in the wrong
20:51
direction when the car industry does
20:56
well Germany does well this old adage is
21:00
a cornerstone of government policy but
21:03
what happens if the decades-old
21:05
symbiotic relationship between
21:07
government and the car industry can no
21:09
longer provide answers to today's
21:11
challenges and the climate crisis
21:16
and Tobias kaneen is one of Germany's
21:19
leading researchers in the field of
21:21
transport
21:25
nothing changes will protect the German
21:28
auto industry to death
21:29
we are currently endangering the five
21:31
six seven hundred thousand jobs that we
21:33
still have because we're protecting
21:35
something that has no chance of survival
21:38
what plan should the German government
21:40
be made to keep us as a nation of car
21:42
makers competitive well
21:46
policymakers have had a long-term plan
21:48
please, everybody, drive cars go with
21:52
the good life and even better if
21:54
everyone buys German cars German
21:56
technology with gasoline and diesel
21:58
engines both German inventions that are
22:01
what we've been pushing what's the
22:03
danger if we continue this policy then
22:08
we'll be overtaken because the world
22:10
around us is different people and
22:12
countries and above all cities elsewhere
22:13
in the world have long since made the
22:15
the decision to phase out combustion engines
22:17
and switch to battery-operated cars
22:19
if we don't play along we'll lose
22:22
crucial export markets and we'll be
22:24
sitting on technologies and cars that no
22:25
one needs any more technique and
22:28
the authority has done that's the kind of
22:30
appalled that's a problem and it's
22:34
accelerating while Germany slams on the
22:37
brakes Civico in the eastern state of
22:40
Saxony has a long tradition of building
22:42
cars VW opened a plant here in 1990 the
22:47
Gulf has been rolling off its assembly
22:49
the line for years but its days are
22:51
numbered change is coming probably also
22:55
because pioneer sounds better than
22:57
emissions chief Volkswagen needs a new
23:00
image its vehicles are responsible for
23:03
2% of global carbon dioxide emissions
23:06
the world's biggest carmaker wants to
23:08
change that it's now taking climate
23:11
goals like Paris 2050 seriously and
23:13
electric vehicles are the future
23:17
Mikail Yost helped devise the plan he's
23:20
chief strategist at Volkswagen a close
23:23
associate of CEO habit dese he filled a
23:27
new position at VW it never had a
23:30
strategist, before what, do you call a
23:33
a strategy that propagates diesel cars for
23:36
decades and then suddenly says the
23:37
future is electric for starters one
23:44
doesn't rule out the other we've never
23:46
said diesel cars have lost their
23:48
relevance but because of the challenges
23:51
we all face meeting the Peris targets
23:52
and bring down co2 levels VW is a
23:55
the mass-market producer really has no other
23:57
choice but are we in Germany reacting
24:03
fast enough given the speed of
24:05
developments around the world every
24:09
technological transformation comes with
24:11
teething problems whenever you rebuild
24:13
something it takes three days before you
24:15
get it to run smoothly and another three
24:18
days before you get used to it well I
24:20
don't get the feeling this will take
24:22
three days symbolically speaking it can
24:27
doubtlessly be sped up speed is what the
24:32
the car industry needs now it's had its foot
24:35
on the brakes for too long
24:38
VW's mass-market electric model the id3
24:41
will be built in Macau the company is
24:45
funneling 400 million euros into the
24:47
facility's conversion but the switch to
24:50
electric will make engine builders
24:52
exhaust fitters and filled pump experts
24:54
redundant so BW is sending them on what
24:59
it calls a learning journey to prepare
25:02
for the future
25:11
long-term employees will have new tasks
25:15
[Music]
25:17
this is where the specialists are
25:20
trained in a roleplay room called
25:22
emotion after a look back at the company
25:28
history trainees get a vision of the
25:31
future with virtual reality and - an
25:48
experience that everyone at this plant
25:51
is slated to share based on what you
25:56
know so far do you think you're in for a
25:58
big change it will be a big change for
26:01
everyone here VW is proud of the 17,000
26:09
orders for electric vehicles but that's
26:12
just the start the company builds 44,000
26:16
vehicles every day
26:18
yeah
26:20
[Music]
26:29
change is coming but what about the
26:32
German auto industry and government
26:34
the policy can we afford to be complacent or
26:37
worse yet without a plan, China is
26:41
building its own fleet of electric cars
26:44
German engineers are helping now German
26:49
car makers want to change faster than the
26:51
government the Transport Minister calls
26:54
Volkswagens plan totally wrong and want
26:58
to keep an open technological mind
27:00
[Music]
27:04
a look at Norway shows government-backed
27:08
change gets results
27:10
so do clearly formulated goals like what
27:14
we are telling us how fast this could
27:16
happen and it was showing how fast it is
27:18
so for the car industry to selling cars
27:21
in Norway, in the future, they have to be
27:22
Syria mission that's where we're going
27:24
and it's happening now so that's just a
27:26
the message we have to make it happen fast
27:28
and every country will benefit from
27:31
being at the forefront of this change
27:33
instead of lagging behind, it's the end
27:36
of an era but also the beginning of
27:38
something new
27:39
the sooner we accept that and sees it as
27:42
an opportunity the better all of this
27:46
can be done if there's a will to get it
27:47
done if we just sit back and wait to see
27:50
what happens
27:51
then we'll face major problems and I
27:54
think we're already seeing the first
27:55
signs of those problems today if the car
27:59
nation Germany doesn't look to the
28:01
future than others will shape its future
28:04
industry and government have sat back
28:06
too long more of the same is no model
28:10
for the future, we need to hit the road
28:13
[Music]
28:24
you